Is Tulsa Shrinking?

Is Tulsa Shrinking?

By Darryl Baskin

 

Census data indicates an exodus from the city of Tulsa to the tune of approximately 10,000 people while surrounding communities of Bixby, Broken Arrow, Jenks and Owasso make headlines for per-capita growth. How has this impacted the real estate market? Interestingly, a supply and demand comparison using active and pending home sales between Tulsa and surrounding communities shows demand for Tulsa homes remaining high - higher, in fact, than Jenks and Bixby if compared by school district.  What would cause this?

 

Census figures reflect the past while pending real estate sales indicate the present.  Late 2001 marked a significant downturn for Tulsa’s real estate market for various reasons; including several major corporate reductions and relocations.  The current census numbers available reflect this turmoil of the past few years.

 

It is also important to note that data cited between different reports will mix school district boundaries with city limits.  Tulsa numbers may or may not include Union and Jenks school districts which will often skew perspectives.  Suburbs are experiencing growth in impressive numbers.  Bixby, Owasso and Jenks are growing at approximately 39%, 28% and 37% respectively.

 

Jenks and Bixby’s growth put the two cities at a disadvantage under this type of comparison for the simple reason that a growing city keeps up with growth by building houses. When homes stop selling for even a short time, inventory piles up quickly.  This is why carefully watching the supply and demand in communities and neighborhoods is critical expertise for a real estate professional.  These “extra inventory” homes become competition for you as a home seller when demand lags.

 

These trends have an impact on your real estate value.  As buyers move to school districts of choice and as builders adjust to changing demands, supply of housing will determine what home sellers see on their bottom line at closing.  A clear understanding of absorption rate and buyer trends can protect your profit when selling. Always make sure your real estate broker has the skill to put this kind of information to work for you in your home sale.

 

Census data source: ok.gov

Housing statistics source: Tulsa MLS

Graph Caption:

The ratio of homes available to the number of sales pending show Tulsa holding strong at 3:1despite census data indicating a drop in residents.